Reticent Man

Misc thoughts:

It doesn't make sense for the Sox to trade Ellsbury.  He's very hard to evaluate, but I'd put him at maybe 3-3.5 WAR.  He has just 2013 under team control at arb 3, probably making $8.1M.  So you're talking about maybe $10M in surplus, which won't net a prospect that sax fans would expect.  Better to just keep him and see what he does... trading him midseason if he's playing well and they're out of the race.

I'm blown away by how nearly universal the disdain for Victorino at 3/39 is, when I have it as a steal to the tune of $15M surplus or so.  No one gives any numbers based reasons, but there must be something going on here.  If he pulls 3 WAR again I'll look good.

Likewise the Pagan signing is being greeted as fine when I think it's another huge steal.  I expect Greinke to be overpaid, and Anibal to be way overpaid.  I love the Meyer for Span trade.  The Scutaro signing I have as fine.

Labels: baseball