Reticent Man
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
Back? Baseball analysis
Maybe I'm back. Well here's more content anyway. I'm just going to write things.
Baseball.... I think there's a gap in analysis right now of taking every contact signed and looking at the basic parameters to figure out what the market value of a win really is. I set up a spreadsheet template. The main parameters are Rate (I'm using 5%) Current $/war (I'm using $5.5M), and decline (I'm using 95% through age 30 and -0.5 WAR per year after 30). So far there aren't many interesting contacts to test it, but it will be interesting to see what shakes out with more data.
Here are some initial rough data points.
Longoria initial contract value: $73M surplus
Longoria extension value: An additional $17M surplus
David Wright breakeven: 7/130 6/120
Gian Stanton value: $82M
Matt Cain value: $18M
Nick Swisher breakevev: 4/60 5/68
Zack Greinke breakeven: 6/120
Baseball.... I think there's a gap in analysis right now of taking every contact signed and looking at the basic parameters to figure out what the market value of a win really is. I set up a spreadsheet template. The main parameters are Rate (I'm using 5%) Current $/war (I'm using $5.5M), and decline (I'm using 95% through age 30 and -0.5 WAR per year after 30). So far there aren't many interesting contacts to test it, but it will be interesting to see what shakes out with more data.
Here are some initial rough data points.
Longoria initial contract value: $73M surplus
Longoria extension value: An additional $17M surplus
David Wright breakeven: 7/130 6/120
Gian Stanton value: $82M
Matt Cain value: $18M
Nick Swisher breakevev: 4/60 5/68
Zack Greinke breakeven: 6/120
Labels: baseball
posted by ReticentMan # 3:22 PM 
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