Reticent Man
Wednesday, November 28, 2012
More baseball
BJ Upton signed with Atlanta. I plugged him into my sheet with 3.5WAR for next season and it hit almost 0 surplus on the first shot. ($340K but that's way inside the margin of error). So it seems like a solid deal. This is also a good first validation of my assumptions.
In response to an article by Dave Cameron at fangraphs about reports of talks involving Will Myers for either John Lester or James Shields. This is my reply
I have both Shields and Lester with about $14-15M surplus value on their contracts. Myers is certainly a top 10 prospect right now, probably in the top 5, which puts his value around $45-50M or so. While there’s an enormous margin of error in those numbers, clearly there’s a mismatch here.
In response to an article by Dave Cameron at fangraphs about reports of talks involving Will Myers for either John Lester or James Shields. This is my reply
I have both Shields and Lester with about $14-15M surplus value on their contracts. Myers is certainly a top 10 prospect right now, probably in the top 5, which puts his value around $45-50M or so. While there’s an enormous margin of error in those numbers, clearly there’s a mismatch here.
Either 1) these reports are incomplete or bullshit
or 2) The Royals are quite dumb.
I say both are equally likely.
or 2) The Royals are quite dumb.
I say both are equally likely.
This is beside the fact that as Dave noted, there’s no reason for the Royals to trade an outfielder.
One possibility that involves the Royals being smart. They have decided that Myers is overrated because he strikes out too much and won’t become an elite hitter, and they are fishing for 95 cents on the dollar while his value is at its peak.
Labels: baseball
Back? Baseball analysis
Maybe I'm back. Well here's more content anyway. I'm just going to write things.
Baseball.... I think there's a gap in analysis right now of taking every contact signed and looking at the basic parameters to figure out what the market value of a win really is. I set up a spreadsheet template. The main parameters are Rate (I'm using 5%) Current $/war (I'm using $5.5M), and decline (I'm using 95% through age 30 and -0.5 WAR per year after 30). So far there aren't many interesting contacts to test it, but it will be interesting to see what shakes out with more data.
Here are some initial rough data points.
Longoria initial contract value: $73M surplus
Longoria extension value: An additional $17M surplus
David Wright breakeven: 7/130 6/120
Gian Stanton value: $82M
Matt Cain value: $18M
Nick Swisher breakevev: 4/60 5/68
Zack Greinke breakeven: 6/120
Baseball.... I think there's a gap in analysis right now of taking every contact signed and looking at the basic parameters to figure out what the market value of a win really is. I set up a spreadsheet template. The main parameters are Rate (I'm using 5%) Current $/war (I'm using $5.5M), and decline (I'm using 95% through age 30 and -0.5 WAR per year after 30). So far there aren't many interesting contacts to test it, but it will be interesting to see what shakes out with more data.
Here are some initial rough data points.
Longoria initial contract value: $73M surplus
Longoria extension value: An additional $17M surplus
David Wright breakeven: 7/130 6/120
Gian Stanton value: $82M
Matt Cain value: $18M
Nick Swisher breakevev: 4/60 5/68
Zack Greinke breakeven: 6/120
Labels: baseball
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